Business
Will a looming recession sink the cannabis industry, or will it stay afloat?
With the threat of a recession hanging over the U.S. economy, the nation’s cannabis industry appears to be on shakier financial ground than when the last downturn struck two years ago, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Marijuana companies weathered the 2020 coronavirus-induced recession relatively well, with sales booming thanks to federal stimulus checks and anxious consumers turning to cannabis for stress relief.
The industry emerged relatively unscathed by the recession.
This time around might be different.
Cannabis industry executives point to rising inflation – which tends to curb consumer purchases – as well as the lack of progress in Washington DC for federal marijuana reform.
Other factors are at play, too.
Newer state markets with limited licenses – think Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York – commonly experience relatively higher wholesale cannabis prices and a less competitive landscape.
Industry officials said marijuana companies in those states are better positioned to weather a downturn than operators in more mature markets such as Colorado, Oregon and Washington state.
Cannabis businesses in those states face overproduction, falling wholesale prices and stiff competition.
As a result, a recession could play out differently depending on the state cannabis market.
“Every state is its own story, with a different regulatory structure,” said Kevin Bush, chief financial officer for Denver-based Sweet Leaf Madison Capital.
George Mancheril, CEO of Bespoke Financial, a Los Angeles commercial lender that works with cannabis companies, said marijuana stands out as one of the only industries where businesses are experiencing deflation.
Mancheril expects that most companies in mature markets won’t have a banner year but should be able to slog through and survive until the end of 2023 or 2024.
“That’s a baseline expectation,” he added.
Dim prospects for reform
Jordan Lams, chief executive officer at Moxie, a vertically integrated cannabis company based in Long Beach, California, said the lack of momentum for marijuana reform at the federal level is making it harder for companies to find capital.
Couple that with falling prices and increased costs stemming from inflation, and “it’s probably one of the more challenging seasons the industry has seen,” he said. “It’s a double whammy.”
Like cannabis companies, marijuana consumers are feeling the pinch of rising costs by way of gas and food prices, among other inflationary pressures.
In response, cannabis consumers could purchase more bargain-priced products and take fewer chances on their selections, according to Skip Motsenbocker, CEO of Pacific Stone, a cannabis cultivator based in Carpinteria, California.
“We do think consumers will be less likely to try new products and stay with brands they know, like and trust (and also) offer great value for their dollar,” he said.
Recession-proof?
Taking into account that the cannabis industry is still relatively young, it’s hard to know whether it is indeed recession-proof, Motsenbocker said.
“However, using the spirits and tobacco industry as an anecdotal guideline, historically these industries have experienced fairly steady demand during a recession.”
Jason Vegotsky, CEO of Petalfast, a sales and marketing agency for the cannabis industry based in Irvine, California, agreed.
“If you look at alcohol beverages, economic downturns typically do not hurt the industry,” he said.
“Instead, what we see is the consumer looking for value alternatives. I would expect the same trend in cannabis during an economic slowdown.”
Government officials and economists, meanwhile, offer a wide range of predictions about the possibility of a prolonged downturn in the U.S.
This week, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said he expects the country to dodge a recession, but other economists believe the chances as much higher.
Economists at Nomura Holdings, for example, said on Monday that the U.S. economy will likely slide into a mild recession by the end of the year as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to slow inflation.
Cannabis industry executives, for their part, are crossing their fingers.
Now versus 2020
The cannabis industry boomed during the brief COVID-19 recession and the pandemic lockdowns of 2020.
Then, consumers were flush with cash from government stimulus checks and had fewer options for spending their discretionary income, given that travel shut down and restaurants shuttered.
Ryan Smith, CEO and co-founder of New York-based cannabis wholesaling platform LeafLink, pointed to the resiliency of the marijuana industry during the pandemic.
“We saw this during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, when brands and retailers quickly adapted to new remote workflows, socially distanced retail models and changing government rules,” he said.
“The cannabis industry is well-positioned to succeed regardless of the headwinds it faces, economic or otherwise.”
But Gary Cohen, CEO of Cova Software, a cannabis POS and tracking software company based in Denver, said the situation is different this time round.
He pointed to rising inflation leading to less cash in consumers’ pockets – this at a time when shoppers have more options for where to spend their money.
Moxie’s Lams noted that “people are out doing a lot of different stuff now. People are going to have to make tough choices in how they allocate their finite funds.”
However, Lams said, cannabis keeps getting cheaper, much to the detriment of the businesses trying to make a profit selling it.
“You can cut costs and reduce staff to save money, but it hurts productivity. It’s a morale killer, and there’s a lot of morale killers out there,” he said.
Tips for companies to survive
The key to success in the cannabis industry is knowing that prices go down as markets mature, Cohen said.
“If you can’t be a good, efficient operator, then you’ll die,” he said.
“If you want to weather this out, you need to think about the reality of where this market is headed.”
Nirup Krishnamurthy, chief operating officer of Schwazze, a Denver-based marijuana company, agreed, saying cannabis companies must keep their costs under control.
“It’s important that you have a certain percent of your business vertically integrated,” he added, saying that can help absorb large price fluctuations in the market.
John Yang, CEO and founder of San Francisco-based cannabis tech firm Treez, said marijuana companies should be reviewing their profitability and margins via hard data and industry trends.
“People need to focus on operations and on what they’re doing,” he said.
Troy Datcher, CEO of The Parent Company, a vertically integrated cannabis company based in California, said operators need to reduce costs by 20% more than they think they need to.
“Be proactive in managing your costs, reach out to venders and negotiate lower rates, defer all nonessential projects and run your business as efficiently as possible,” he said.
Source: https://mjbizdaily.com/how-would-a-recession-impact-the-cannabis-industry/
Business
Alleged Crores Pharma Scam Mastermind Arrested from Surat
After evading law enforcement for nearly 13 years, an accused linked to a large-scale pharmaceutical fraud case has been arrested by Delhi Police from Surat, Gujarat. The suspect is alleged to have orchestrated a series of financial scams involving fake identities, forged documents, and dishonoured cheques used to procure high-value pharmaceutical raw materials.
Authorities say the accused, identified as Himmat Singh Lodha, is believed to have defrauded multiple pharmaceutical companies in Delhi of goods worth approximately ₹98 lakh before disappearing and remaining underground for years.
Fake Business Deals and Dishonoured Cheques Used in Fraud
Investigators claim the accused posed as a legitimate pharmaceutical trader and placed bulk orders for expensive drug ingredients, offering post-dated cheques as payment security.
In one documented case from 2013, he allegedly obtained around 550 kilograms of Gliclazide, a diabetes-related pharmaceutical ingredient, valued at over ₹26 lakh. When suppliers attempted to encash the cheques, they were reportedly returned with the remark “account closed.”
Following the transaction, the accused allegedly vacated his office and rented residence and disappeared without settling payments. He was later declared a proclaimed offender in 2016 after repeatedly failing to appear before court proceedings. Authorities had also issued a reward for information leading to his arrest.
Multiple Identities and Repeated Fraud Pattern
Police investigations further link the accused to another cheating case dating back to 2012, where he allegedly used a fake identity, “Kailash Jain,” to obtain a large consignment of Ambroxol HCL, a pharmaceutical compound used in cough medications. The value of that consignment was estimated at around ₹72 lakh.
Officials believe the accused followed a consistent modus operandi—posing as a credible businessman, securing high-value goods on deferred payment terms, and then disappearing after delivery while shutting down business operations.
Investigators suspect that forged business records, fake company credentials, and fabricated financial histories were used to build trust with suppliers and gain access to expensive raw materials.
Multi-State Surveillance Leads to Arrest in Surat
A special Crime Branch team tracked the accused through coordinated surveillance efforts across multiple cities, including Mumbai, Ahmedabad, and Surat. After nearly a month of technical monitoring and intelligence gathering, officials located and arrested him from a residential area in Surat.
Authorities also revealed that the accused had been involved in property-related activities while staying under the radar to avoid detection.
Growing Threat of Corporate Identity Fraud
The case highlights a rising trend of organised financial fraud targeting industries that rely heavily on trust-based transactions and deferred payments. Experts note that criminals increasingly exploit gaps in corporate verification systems by using fake GST registrations, temporary offices, and forged documentation to appear legitimate.
Cybercrime and financial fraud specialists warn that such schemes are becoming more complex with the widespread availability of digital business tools, making it easier to create convincing but fraudulent corporate identities.
Experts Urge Stronger Due Diligence in High-Value Transactions
Experts, including former IPS officer and cybercrime specialist Prof. Triveni Singh, emphasize the need for stricter verification procedures in commercial dealings. He noted that relying solely on paperwork or digital business profiles can expose companies to significant financial risk.
Authorities and industry experts recommend physical verification of business operations, bank account validation, and detailed background checks before engaging in high-value or deferred-payment transactions—particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, where single consignments can involve transactions worth crores.
Business
EU Pressure Builds on Google as Regulators Face Calls for Massive Fine Over Search Practices
A growing coalition of European industry groups is intensifying pressure on regulators to take decisive action against Google over allegations of unfair search practices that could reshape competition rules across the region’s digital economy.
Investigation Under Digital Markets Act Gains Momentum
The case is being examined by the European Commission under the European Union’s landmark Digital Markets Act (DMA), introduced to curb the dominance of major technology platforms and ensure fair competition.
Launched in March 2024, the investigation focuses on whether Google has been prioritising its own services in search results, potentially disadvantaging rival businesses that rely on online visibility to reach customers.
Industry Groups Demand Swift Action
Several prominent European organizations have jointly urged regulators to conclude the probe without further delay. They argue that prolonged investigations allow alleged anti-competitive practices to continue, putting European companies—especially startups—at a disadvantage.
Signatories include the European Publishers Council, the European Magazine Media Association, the European Tech Alliance, and EU Travel Tech.
In a joint statement, these groups warned that delays in enforcement are affecting innovation, profitability, and growth prospects for regional businesses competing in digital markets.
Google Denies Allegations
Google has rejected claims of bias, stating that its search algorithms are designed to deliver the most relevant and useful results to users. The company has also proposed adjustments to address regulatory concerns.
However, critics argue that these changes are insufficient and fail to address the core issue of market dominance.
Potential Billion-Euro Penalties
If found in violation of the DMA, Google could face significant financial penalties. Under EU rules, fines can reach a substantial percentage of a company’s global turnover, potentially amounting to billions of euros.
Regulators may also impose corrective measures requiring changes to business practices, which could have long-term implications for how digital platforms operate in Europe.
Wider Implications for Big Tech
The case highlights ongoing tensions between European regulators and major U.S. technology firms. In recent years, the EU has taken a more aggressive stance in enforcing competition laws, aiming to create a level playing field for local businesses.
A final ruling against Google could set a major precedent, influencing future enforcement actions and shaping the regulatory landscape for global tech companies operating within Europe.
As scrutiny intensifies, the outcome of the investigation is expected to play a critical role in defining the future of digital competition across the European Union.
AI & Technology
Amazon Faces Potential Criminal Trial in Italy Over €1.2 Billion Tax Evasion Allegations
Milan: U.S. tech giant Amazon is facing the prospect of a major legal showdown in Italy, after prosecutors in Milan formally requested a court to move forward with criminal proceedings over alleged tax evasion totaling approximately ₹12,500 crore (€1.2 billion).
The case targets Amazon’s European division along with four senior executives, marking one of the most significant tax-related investigations involving a global e-commerce platform in Europe.
Trial Push Despite Multi-Million Euro Settlement
The move comes even after Amazon reached a financial settlement with Italian tax authorities in December, agreeing to pay around ₹5,500 crore (€527 million), including interest, to resolve part of the dispute.
Typically, such settlements lead to the closure of criminal investigations. However, Milan prosecutors have opted to proceed, signaling a tougher stance on alleged corporate tax violations.
A preliminary hearing is expected in the coming months, where a judge will decide whether to formally indict the company and its executives or dismiss the case.
Allegations of VAT Evasion Through Marketplace Sellers
At the center of the investigation are claims that Amazon’s platform enabled non-European Union sellers to avoid paying value-added tax (VAT) on goods sold to Italian consumers between 2019 and 2021.
Prosecutors allege that the company’s marketplace structure allowed thousands of foreign vendors—many reportedly based in China—to operate without fully disclosing their identities or tax obligations. This, authorities argue, led to substantial VAT losses for the Italian government.
Under Italian law, online platforms facilitating sales can be held partially liable if third-party sellers fail to comply with tax requirements, a key point in the prosecution’s case.
Italian Government Named as Affected Party
In their filing, prosecutors identified Italy’s Economy Ministry as the injured party, citing significant financial damage resulting from the alleged tax evasion.
Legal experts say the outcome of the case could have wide-ranging implications across the European Union, where VAT systems are harmonized and similar compliance rules apply to digital marketplaces.
Multiple Investigations Add to Pressure
The VAT probe is just one of several legal challenges facing Amazon in Italy. The European Public Prosecutor’s Office is reportedly examining additional tax-related issues covering more recent years.
Meanwhile, Milan authorities are pursuing separate investigations into alleged customs fraud linked to imports from China and whether Amazon maintained an undeclared “permanent establishment” in Italy—potentially exposing it to higher tax liabilities.
In a separate regulatory action, Italy’s data protection authority recently ordered an Amazon unit to stop using personal data from over 1,800 employees at a warehouse near Rome.
Amazon Denies Allegations
Amazon has consistently denied wrongdoing and indicated it will strongly contest the allegations in court if the case proceeds. The company has also warned that prolonged legal uncertainty could impact investor confidence and Italy’s appeal as a destination for international business.
Broader Impact on Europe’s Digital Economy
If the case moves to trial, it could become a landmark moment for the regulation of global e-commerce platforms in Europe. Governments across the region are increasingly scrutinizing how digital marketplaces handle tax compliance, especially in cross-border transactions.
With online retail continuing to expand, regulators are under mounting pressure to ensure that multinational platforms and third-party sellers adhere to the same tax rules as traditional businesses.
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