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Cannabis producer Tilray quietly drops $4 billion sales target for 2024

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Image of Biocant Research Park, home to Tilray's Portugal cannabis facility.

Tilray’s marijuana facility in Portugal is located in Biocant Research Park.

Tilray Brands has quietly abandoned its pledge to achieve annual revenue of $4 billion (5.3 billion Canadian dollars) by the end of 2024, with analysts now predicting the North American cannabis producer will fall far short of that figure.

The company’s management no longer guides for the target, Pablo Zuanic, managing director at New York-based investment banking firm Cantor Fitzgerald, wrote in a note to investors, citing a conference call with Tilray executives in January.

The analyst said Tilray’s target was undone by “delayed” legalization in the United States and Germany plus ongoing issues in Canada, including price compressionoverproduction and slowing national sales.

The Leamington, Ontario- and New York-headquartered business isn’t the only cannabis company tripped up by delayed legalization and U.S. reforms as well as other difficulties.

The industry is bracing for a challenging 2023.

In the U.S., Colorado-headquartered Akerna Corp., the parent company of cannabis technology company MJ Freeway, said last week it’s exiting the marijuana industry.

Also last week, Massachusetts-based multistate operator Curaleaf Holdings said it was exiting California, Oregon and Colorado.

In Europe, Colombian cannabis firm Clever Leaves announced its plans to exit Portugal.

A $4 billion target 

Tilray CEO Irwin Simon originally laid out the ambitious $4 billion target in a conference call with analysts in July 2021.

In a subsequent letter to Tilray shareholders on Aug. 26, 2021, Simon detailed his strategic vision to achieve the $4 billion in annual revenue.

“This is the foundation that will be so essential to getting us from our current combined retail market share in Canada of 16% to our goal of 30% share by fiscal year 2024,” he wrote.

However, Tilray’s market share at home has fallen by roughly 50% since then. Tilray now says it controls roughly 8.3% of the Canadian recreational market.

In an email to MJBizDaily, a spokesperson for the North American cannabis, alcohol and pharmaceutical distribution company conceded that federal legalization in the United States and Germany did not play out as the company had expected.

“The $4 billion sales target by the end of (fiscal year) 24 was conditioned upon federal legalization of cannabis in the U.S. – with a projected $100 billion market – as well as adult-use legalization in Germany,” the spokesperson said.

U.S. lawmakers failed to legalize cannabis, or even pass the SAFE Banking Act, which would have protected financial institutions from federal punishment if they served regulated marijuana companies.

Germany, meanwhile, is already falling behind on its commitment to legalize cannabis production and sales.

Tilray recently reported a $61.6 million net loss for the quarter ended Nov. 30, bringing its loss for the six-month period to $127.4 million.

Some experts warn executives to avoid latching on to optimistic scenarios involving federal legalization for any country, given the complex societal, political and economic forces at play.

Tilray has not replaced the guidance on revenue for fiscal 2024, but the spokesperson said the company expects to generate $70 million-$80 million of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) and be free-cash flow positive across all business segments.

However, in a 2022 regulatory filing, the company noted that it “began operating in 2014 and have yet to generate a profit.”

Analysts adapt 

Analysts currently forecast Tilray would be approximately 80% short of its now-shelved goal of $4 billion in sales by year-end 2024.

Zuanic, the Cantor Fitzgerald analyst, lowered sales estimates for Tilray to $613.4 million (down from $659.7 million) in 2023 and $675.1 million in 2024 (down from $732.7 million).

Tammy Chen, an analyst for Toronto-based BMO Capital Markets, has been trimming her fiscal 2024 forecast for Tilray.

The BMO analyst now sees the company generating $643 million in sales in fiscal 2024, down from an earlier forecast of $702 million last summer.

Analysts have been slashing their sales forecasts for Tilray ever since its merger with Aphria in 2021.

For instance, New York-headquartered investment banking company Jefferies expected the newly united Tilray to record more than $1 billion in sales in 2022, before lowering that forecast substantially.

Tilray reported net sales of $628.3 million that year.

Tilray’s focus

The Tilray spokesperson said that, with delayed federal legalization of marijuana in the United States, Tilray plans to continue to grow its businesses in Canada, Europe and the U.S.

In Canada, Tilray said, it’s focused on both organic growth and acquisitions as well as growing medical and adult-use cannabis market share.

“In the U.S., we are not simply waiting for federal legalization of cannabis. We’ve invested in leading and profitable CPG brands across craft beverage-alcohol and wellness consumer products,” the spokesperson said.

Tilray’s U.S.-focused businesses include Breckenridge DistilleryManitoba Harvest and SweetWater Brewing Co.

Tilray recently acquired Montauk Brewing Co., which it says is the fastest-growing craft beer brand in metro New York.

Regarding cannabis production, BMO’s Chen said in a recent note to investors that Tilray’s cannabis cultivation capacity might be too large for the market opportunity.

“Management indicated the lower utilization is temporary,” Chen wrote, “but we wonder if (Tilray’s) capacity will exceed its market opportunity for some time given how slow Canada has been to rationalize the number of LPs, and we believe European rec legalization may take longer than expected.”

Simon said Tilray is considering using excess capacity to grow fruits and vegetables, following an example set by Alberta-based Aurora Cannabis.

The spokesperson said via email that Tilray’s “focus is on driving revenue gains across our diverse portfolio, which will create a strong channel for additional revenue in adult-use cannabis, pending federal legalization.

“This approach allows us to capitalize on the current market conditions and create a strong foundation for future growth in the U.S. federal cannabis industry.”

In Europe, the spokesperson said, Tilray continues to focus on growing the CC Pharma business, which distributes medical cannabis to pharmacies in Germany, and increasing medical marijuana market share in Germany and other markets.

Earlier this month, Tilray cut roughly a quarter of its workforce at its medical cannabis facility in Cantanhede, Portugal.

“We remain poised and ready to leverage our current businesses to be a first-mover upon expected adult-use legalization in Germany and other European markets,” the spokesperson added.

The company’s shares trade as TLRY on the Nasdaq and Toronto Stock Exchange.

Source: https://mjbizdaily.com/cannabis-producer-tilray-quietly-drops-4-billion-sales-target-for-2024/

Business

EU Pressure Builds on Google as Regulators Face Calls for Massive Fine Over Search Practices

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A growing coalition of European industry groups is intensifying pressure on regulators to take decisive action against Google over allegations of unfair search practices that could reshape competition rules across the region’s digital economy.

Investigation Under Digital Markets Act Gains Momentum

The case is being examined by the European Commission under the European Union’s landmark Digital Markets Act (DMA), introduced to curb the dominance of major technology platforms and ensure fair competition.

Launched in March 2024, the investigation focuses on whether Google has been prioritising its own services in search results, potentially disadvantaging rival businesses that rely on online visibility to reach customers.

Industry Groups Demand Swift Action

Several prominent European organizations have jointly urged regulators to conclude the probe without further delay. They argue that prolonged investigations allow alleged anti-competitive practices to continue, putting European companies—especially startups—at a disadvantage.

Signatories include the European Publishers Council, the European Magazine Media Association, the European Tech Alliance, and EU Travel Tech.

In a joint statement, these groups warned that delays in enforcement are affecting innovation, profitability, and growth prospects for regional businesses competing in digital markets.

Google Denies Allegations

Google has rejected claims of bias, stating that its search algorithms are designed to deliver the most relevant and useful results to users. The company has also proposed adjustments to address regulatory concerns.

However, critics argue that these changes are insufficient and fail to address the core issue of market dominance.

Potential Billion-Euro Penalties

If found in violation of the DMA, Google could face significant financial penalties. Under EU rules, fines can reach a substantial percentage of a company’s global turnover, potentially amounting to billions of euros.

Regulators may also impose corrective measures requiring changes to business practices, which could have long-term implications for how digital platforms operate in Europe.

Wider Implications for Big Tech

The case highlights ongoing tensions between European regulators and major U.S. technology firms. In recent years, the EU has taken a more aggressive stance in enforcing competition laws, aiming to create a level playing field for local businesses.

A final ruling against Google could set a major precedent, influencing future enforcement actions and shaping the regulatory landscape for global tech companies operating within Europe.

As scrutiny intensifies, the outcome of the investigation is expected to play a critical role in defining the future of digital competition across the European Union.

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AI & Technology

Amazon Faces Potential Criminal Trial in Italy Over €1.2 Billion Tax Evasion Allegations

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Milan: U.S. tech giant Amazon is facing the prospect of a major legal showdown in Italy, after prosecutors in Milan formally requested a court to move forward with criminal proceedings over alleged tax evasion totaling approximately ₹12,500 crore (€1.2 billion).

The case targets Amazon’s European division along with four senior executives, marking one of the most significant tax-related investigations involving a global e-commerce platform in Europe.

Trial Push Despite Multi-Million Euro Settlement

The move comes even after Amazon reached a financial settlement with Italian tax authorities in December, agreeing to pay around ₹5,500 crore (€527 million), including interest, to resolve part of the dispute.

Typically, such settlements lead to the closure of criminal investigations. However, Milan prosecutors have opted to proceed, signaling a tougher stance on alleged corporate tax violations.

A preliminary hearing is expected in the coming months, where a judge will decide whether to formally indict the company and its executives or dismiss the case.

Allegations of VAT Evasion Through Marketplace Sellers

At the center of the investigation are claims that Amazon’s platform enabled non-European Union sellers to avoid paying value-added tax (VAT) on goods sold to Italian consumers between 2019 and 2021.

Prosecutors allege that the company’s marketplace structure allowed thousands of foreign vendors—many reportedly based in China—to operate without fully disclosing their identities or tax obligations. This, authorities argue, led to substantial VAT losses for the Italian government.

Under Italian law, online platforms facilitating sales can be held partially liable if third-party sellers fail to comply with tax requirements, a key point in the prosecution’s case.

Italian Government Named as Affected Party

In their filing, prosecutors identified Italy’s Economy Ministry as the injured party, citing significant financial damage resulting from the alleged tax evasion.

Legal experts say the outcome of the case could have wide-ranging implications across the European Union, where VAT systems are harmonized and similar compliance rules apply to digital marketplaces.

Multiple Investigations Add to Pressure

The VAT probe is just one of several legal challenges facing Amazon in Italy. The European Public Prosecutor’s Office is reportedly examining additional tax-related issues covering more recent years.

Meanwhile, Milan authorities are pursuing separate investigations into alleged customs fraud linked to imports from China and whether Amazon maintained an undeclared “permanent establishment” in Italy—potentially exposing it to higher tax liabilities.

In a separate regulatory action, Italy’s data protection authority recently ordered an Amazon unit to stop using personal data from over 1,800 employees at a warehouse near Rome.

Amazon Denies Allegations

Amazon has consistently denied wrongdoing and indicated it will strongly contest the allegations in court if the case proceeds. The company has also warned that prolonged legal uncertainty could impact investor confidence and Italy’s appeal as a destination for international business.

Broader Impact on Europe’s Digital Economy

If the case moves to trial, it could become a landmark moment for the regulation of global e-commerce platforms in Europe. Governments across the region are increasingly scrutinizing how digital marketplaces handle tax compliance, especially in cross-border transactions.

With online retail continuing to expand, regulators are under mounting pressure to ensure that multinational platforms and third-party sellers adhere to the same tax rules as traditional businesses.

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Aviation

IndiGo Crisis Exposes Risks of Monopoly: What If Telecom or E-commerce Collapses Next?

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Airports across India witnessed scenes of distress and confusion as thousands of passengers were stranded due to IndiGo’s massive flight disruptions. Families with medical emergencies, funerals, and personal crises were left helpless as the airline cancelled hundreds of flights without adequate communication or support.

Passengers described desperate situations — a mother pleading for sanitary pads for her daughter, a woman unable to transport her husband’s coffin, and others stranded while trying to reach family funerals or hospitals. “It was like a lockdown at the airport,” one passenger said, describing the panic that unfolded as IndiGo’s mismanagement crippled operations nationwide.

Root Cause: IndiGo’s Market Monopoly

The turmoil, industry experts argue, stems from IndiGo’s monopolistic control over India’s domestic aviation market. The airline operates nearly 2,100 flights daily and holds around 60% market share — meaning every second plane flying within India belongs to IndiGo.

This dominance has given the company unparalleled influence. When IndiGo falters, the entire aviation system suffers. Passengers are left with few alternatives, as other airlines lack capacity to absorb stranded travellers. The result: skyrocketing ticket prices, chaos at terminals, and total dependence on a single private operator.

Aviation pioneer Captain G.R. Gopinath, founder of Air Deccan, criticised the government’s inaction, noting that on some routes, IndiGo’s economy fares surged to ₹1 lakh. He compared the situation to a hostage crisis, writing that the airline “held the system ransom” and forced regulators to defer new safety rules meant to protect pilots and passengers.

Government Intervention and Regulatory Weakness

The crisis erupted after IndiGo failed to comply with the Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL) — rules introduced by the DGCA in January 2024 requiring adequate rest for pilots. Despite having nearly two years to adapt, IndiGo blamed the rule for operational disruptions, citing a shortage of pilots.

Under mounting public pressure, the government stepped in, temporarily relaxing FDTL norms and capping airfare hikes. Officials claimed the move was to protect passengers, but analysts say it exposed the state’s vulnerability to corporate monopolies. “The government had no option but to yield,” said one aviation policy expert, pointing out that ignoring safety regulations for short-term relief could have long-term consequences.

The crisis also rekindled memories of the June 2025 Air India crash near London, which claimed over 240 lives. Experts warn that compromising pilot rest and safety standards to maintain flight schedules could risk another tragedy.

If Telecom Giants Fail: A National Paralysis

The article raises a troubling question — what if a similar crisis struck the telecom sector, where Jio and Airtel together control nearly 80% of subscribers and serve over 780 million users?

If both networks failed simultaneously, the repercussions would be catastrophic. Internet shutdowns would halt UPI transactions, online banking, OTP verifications, video calls, OTT streaming, and emergency communications. Critical services such as airports, hospitals, stock exchanges, and small businesses — many of which rely on WhatsApp and digital payments — would come to a standstill.

In essence, a telecom breakdown could paralyse India’s digital economy, exposing the nation’s dependence on a duopoly.

E-commerce Monopoly: Another Fragile Ecosystem

The same risk looms over the e-commerce sector, where Amazon and Flipkart dominate nearly 80% of the market. A disruption similar to IndiGo’s could cripple daily life — halting delivery of groceries, medicines, and essential goods, freezing refunds and customer support, and leaving small sellers without platforms to trade.

Local retailers, freed from competition, might exploit shortages by inflating prices. Such a scenario underscores the perils of market centralisation in sectors critical to everyday living.

A Wake-Up Call for Regulators

The IndiGo crisis, analysts say, is a warning shot for policymakers and regulators. A single company’s operational failure exposed systemic weaknesses in India’s infrastructure and consumer protection mechanisms.

As the aviation regulator DGCA investigates and IndiGo works to restore normalcy, the broader lesson remains clear: unchecked monopoly power in any essential service — whether air travel, telecom, or e-commerce — poses a direct threat to economic stability and citizen welfare.

Without stronger competition laws, redundancy frameworks, and regulatory oversight, India risks repeating this crisis across multiple sectors — each time with millions of citizens paying the price.

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