Business
Canadian adult-use cannabis sales growth slowing faster than expected
Sales of adult-use cannabis in Canada are slowing more quickly than expected, according to a new report, and at least one analyst says structural changes are needed for the nation’s industry to recover growth momentum.
A report, written by Toronto-based analyst Frederico Gomes of ATB Capital Markets, notes that Canadian marijuana retail sales grew an estimated 7.7% year-over-year in September, which would be the lowest since legalization occurred in late 2018.
Decelerating nationwide sales add to a growing list of challenges for Canadian cannabis producers and retailers.
Some of those include:
- Government-owned businesses are generating the only meaningful profits in the industry.
- Those government-owned businesses, mostly wholesalers, are taking an unfair margin, business leaders say.
- The industry continues to suffer from a massive oversupply of cannabis, with nationwide inventories reaching 1.4 billion grams (1,400 metric tons) and cannabis destruction since 2018 approaching another 1 billion grams.
Gomes attributes growth deceleration to:
- Price compression, as less margin flows through to businesses.
- Declining sales volume growth of unique items sold, meaning consumers are buying bigger packages.
Earlier this year, ATB warned that recreational cannabis sales growth rates had been slowing every quarter for the past two years.
“This trend indicates a market that is growing slower – and therefore is smaller – than previously anticipated,” Gomes wrote in the July note.
“While the slowdown can be partially attributed to price compression at the LP and retail levels – so far dodging inflation, here – we believe the long-term trend reflects a maturing market.”
The ATB analyst shaved 200,000 Canadian dollars ($148,000) off his 2022 recreational sales forecast for Canada.
ATB now projects Canadian sales of recreational cannabis to be CA$4.6 billion in 2022.
A positive note
Gomes said there’s a silver lining for licensed cannabis companies.
Early signs suggest pricing might be bottoming out.
“We think that these may be early signs that industry pricing is bottoming out as fragmentation nears its peak, companies are forced to focus on margins – balance sheets are stretched and access to capital is scarce – and marginal gains in cultivation efficiency diminish,” Gomes wrote in the note.
He said flower prices per unit appear to be turning a corner, “which could provide much-needed margin relief for LPs through 2023.”
But Gomes noted sales volume growth decelerated over the past four months in categories such as flower and edibles.
“Since July 2022, flower volume declines have been, for the first time, superseding price per unit declines,” the analyst wrote.
“We believe this trend is reflective of a consumer shift towards bulkier flower purchases, market maturation, and a transition towards pre-rolls.”
Sales volumes and prices per unit of pre-rolls are growing, Gomes said, and the category is slowly gaining on flower.
He noted that pre-rolls now account for almost one-third of the market. Last year, those products made up a quarter of all sales.
Structural changes needed
Pablo Zuanic, managing director at New York-based investment banking firm Cantor Fitzgerald, said growth of the Canadian adult-use market continues to decelerate.
In a note to investors, Zuanic said that even though Canada’s 13% year-over-year growth in the third quarter is better than the flat trends in U.S. state markets, Canadian per-capita sales significantly lag behind key states.
Zuanic noted that Canada’s per-capita sales were $90, compared with $120 in California, $150 in Michigan and upwards of $200 in Arizona and Massachusetts.
“We think structural changes are needed for the (Canadian) market to recover the growth momentum,” he wrote.
One such reform could be to the country’s excise tax structure. About two-thirds of Canada’s cannabis producers are falling behind on tax payments.
Zuanic also wrote that “prices continue to decline, but less than in the past and we see signs of stabilization; also, we note companies gaining share tend to enjoy higher average prices.”
“We attribute this to a more discerning consumer and to companies realizing the race to the bottom is not sustainable,” he added.
Zuanic noted that flower’s share of the overall market fell to 40% in the third quarter of 2022 from 49% in the same period last year.
Pre-rolls accounted for 31% of sales in the quarter, up 16% from a year ago.
The growth in infused pre-roll sales represents “the most significant growth of any segment within the cannabis industry over the last year or two, given that it is growing very quickly and it is also very large,” Cooper Ashley, analytics manager with Seattle-based cannabis analytics firm Headset, previously told MJBizDaily.
Source: https://mjbizdaily.com/canadian-adult-use-cannabis-sales-growth-slowing-faster-than-expected/
Business
EU Pressure Builds on Google as Regulators Face Calls for Massive Fine Over Search Practices
A growing coalition of European industry groups is intensifying pressure on regulators to take decisive action against Google over allegations of unfair search practices that could reshape competition rules across the region’s digital economy.
Investigation Under Digital Markets Act Gains Momentum
The case is being examined by the European Commission under the European Union’s landmark Digital Markets Act (DMA), introduced to curb the dominance of major technology platforms and ensure fair competition.
Launched in March 2024, the investigation focuses on whether Google has been prioritising its own services in search results, potentially disadvantaging rival businesses that rely on online visibility to reach customers.
Industry Groups Demand Swift Action
Several prominent European organizations have jointly urged regulators to conclude the probe without further delay. They argue that prolonged investigations allow alleged anti-competitive practices to continue, putting European companies—especially startups—at a disadvantage.
Signatories include the European Publishers Council, the European Magazine Media Association, the European Tech Alliance, and EU Travel Tech.
In a joint statement, these groups warned that delays in enforcement are affecting innovation, profitability, and growth prospects for regional businesses competing in digital markets.
Google Denies Allegations
Google has rejected claims of bias, stating that its search algorithms are designed to deliver the most relevant and useful results to users. The company has also proposed adjustments to address regulatory concerns.
However, critics argue that these changes are insufficient and fail to address the core issue of market dominance.
Potential Billion-Euro Penalties
If found in violation of the DMA, Google could face significant financial penalties. Under EU rules, fines can reach a substantial percentage of a company’s global turnover, potentially amounting to billions of euros.
Regulators may also impose corrective measures requiring changes to business practices, which could have long-term implications for how digital platforms operate in Europe.
Wider Implications for Big Tech
The case highlights ongoing tensions between European regulators and major U.S. technology firms. In recent years, the EU has taken a more aggressive stance in enforcing competition laws, aiming to create a level playing field for local businesses.
A final ruling against Google could set a major precedent, influencing future enforcement actions and shaping the regulatory landscape for global tech companies operating within Europe.
As scrutiny intensifies, the outcome of the investigation is expected to play a critical role in defining the future of digital competition across the European Union.
AI & Technology
Amazon Faces Potential Criminal Trial in Italy Over €1.2 Billion Tax Evasion Allegations
Milan: U.S. tech giant Amazon is facing the prospect of a major legal showdown in Italy, after prosecutors in Milan formally requested a court to move forward with criminal proceedings over alleged tax evasion totaling approximately ₹12,500 crore (€1.2 billion).
The case targets Amazon’s European division along with four senior executives, marking one of the most significant tax-related investigations involving a global e-commerce platform in Europe.
Trial Push Despite Multi-Million Euro Settlement
The move comes even after Amazon reached a financial settlement with Italian tax authorities in December, agreeing to pay around ₹5,500 crore (€527 million), including interest, to resolve part of the dispute.
Typically, such settlements lead to the closure of criminal investigations. However, Milan prosecutors have opted to proceed, signaling a tougher stance on alleged corporate tax violations.
A preliminary hearing is expected in the coming months, where a judge will decide whether to formally indict the company and its executives or dismiss the case.
Allegations of VAT Evasion Through Marketplace Sellers
At the center of the investigation are claims that Amazon’s platform enabled non-European Union sellers to avoid paying value-added tax (VAT) on goods sold to Italian consumers between 2019 and 2021.
Prosecutors allege that the company’s marketplace structure allowed thousands of foreign vendors—many reportedly based in China—to operate without fully disclosing their identities or tax obligations. This, authorities argue, led to substantial VAT losses for the Italian government.
Under Italian law, online platforms facilitating sales can be held partially liable if third-party sellers fail to comply with tax requirements, a key point in the prosecution’s case.
Italian Government Named as Affected Party
In their filing, prosecutors identified Italy’s Economy Ministry as the injured party, citing significant financial damage resulting from the alleged tax evasion.
Legal experts say the outcome of the case could have wide-ranging implications across the European Union, where VAT systems are harmonized and similar compliance rules apply to digital marketplaces.
Multiple Investigations Add to Pressure
The VAT probe is just one of several legal challenges facing Amazon in Italy. The European Public Prosecutor’s Office is reportedly examining additional tax-related issues covering more recent years.
Meanwhile, Milan authorities are pursuing separate investigations into alleged customs fraud linked to imports from China and whether Amazon maintained an undeclared “permanent establishment” in Italy—potentially exposing it to higher tax liabilities.
In a separate regulatory action, Italy’s data protection authority recently ordered an Amazon unit to stop using personal data from over 1,800 employees at a warehouse near Rome.
Amazon Denies Allegations
Amazon has consistently denied wrongdoing and indicated it will strongly contest the allegations in court if the case proceeds. The company has also warned that prolonged legal uncertainty could impact investor confidence and Italy’s appeal as a destination for international business.
Broader Impact on Europe’s Digital Economy
If the case moves to trial, it could become a landmark moment for the regulation of global e-commerce platforms in Europe. Governments across the region are increasingly scrutinizing how digital marketplaces handle tax compliance, especially in cross-border transactions.
With online retail continuing to expand, regulators are under mounting pressure to ensure that multinational platforms and third-party sellers adhere to the same tax rules as traditional businesses.
Aviation
IndiGo Crisis Exposes Risks of Monopoly: What If Telecom or E-commerce Collapses Next?
Airports across India witnessed scenes of distress and confusion as thousands of passengers were stranded due to IndiGo’s massive flight disruptions. Families with medical emergencies, funerals, and personal crises were left helpless as the airline cancelled hundreds of flights without adequate communication or support.
Passengers described desperate situations — a mother pleading for sanitary pads for her daughter, a woman unable to transport her husband’s coffin, and others stranded while trying to reach family funerals or hospitals. “It was like a lockdown at the airport,” one passenger said, describing the panic that unfolded as IndiGo’s mismanagement crippled operations nationwide.
Root Cause: IndiGo’s Market Monopoly
The turmoil, industry experts argue, stems from IndiGo’s monopolistic control over India’s domestic aviation market. The airline operates nearly 2,100 flights daily and holds around 60% market share — meaning every second plane flying within India belongs to IndiGo.
This dominance has given the company unparalleled influence. When IndiGo falters, the entire aviation system suffers. Passengers are left with few alternatives, as other airlines lack capacity to absorb stranded travellers. The result: skyrocketing ticket prices, chaos at terminals, and total dependence on a single private operator.
Aviation pioneer Captain G.R. Gopinath, founder of Air Deccan, criticised the government’s inaction, noting that on some routes, IndiGo’s economy fares surged to ₹1 lakh. He compared the situation to a hostage crisis, writing that the airline “held the system ransom” and forced regulators to defer new safety rules meant to protect pilots and passengers.
Government Intervention and Regulatory Weakness
The crisis erupted after IndiGo failed to comply with the Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL) — rules introduced by the DGCA in January 2024 requiring adequate rest for pilots. Despite having nearly two years to adapt, IndiGo blamed the rule for operational disruptions, citing a shortage of pilots.
Under mounting public pressure, the government stepped in, temporarily relaxing FDTL norms and capping airfare hikes. Officials claimed the move was to protect passengers, but analysts say it exposed the state’s vulnerability to corporate monopolies. “The government had no option but to yield,” said one aviation policy expert, pointing out that ignoring safety regulations for short-term relief could have long-term consequences.
The crisis also rekindled memories of the June 2025 Air India crash near London, which claimed over 240 lives. Experts warn that compromising pilot rest and safety standards to maintain flight schedules could risk another tragedy.
If Telecom Giants Fail: A National Paralysis
The article raises a troubling question — what if a similar crisis struck the telecom sector, where Jio and Airtel together control nearly 80% of subscribers and serve over 780 million users?
If both networks failed simultaneously, the repercussions would be catastrophic. Internet shutdowns would halt UPI transactions, online banking, OTP verifications, video calls, OTT streaming, and emergency communications. Critical services such as airports, hospitals, stock exchanges, and small businesses — many of which rely on WhatsApp and digital payments — would come to a standstill.
In essence, a telecom breakdown could paralyse India’s digital economy, exposing the nation’s dependence on a duopoly.
E-commerce Monopoly: Another Fragile Ecosystem
The same risk looms over the e-commerce sector, where Amazon and Flipkart dominate nearly 80% of the market. A disruption similar to IndiGo’s could cripple daily life — halting delivery of groceries, medicines, and essential goods, freezing refunds and customer support, and leaving small sellers without platforms to trade.
Local retailers, freed from competition, might exploit shortages by inflating prices. Such a scenario underscores the perils of market centralisation in sectors critical to everyday living.
A Wake-Up Call for Regulators
The IndiGo crisis, analysts say, is a warning shot for policymakers and regulators. A single company’s operational failure exposed systemic weaknesses in India’s infrastructure and consumer protection mechanisms.
As the aviation regulator DGCA investigates and IndiGo works to restore normalcy, the broader lesson remains clear: unchecked monopoly power in any essential service — whether air travel, telecom, or e-commerce — poses a direct threat to economic stability and citizen welfare.
Without stronger competition laws, redundancy frameworks, and regulatory oversight, India risks repeating this crisis across multiple sectors — each time with millions of citizens paying the price.
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