Google Engineer Charged Over ₹11 Crore Polymarket Insider Trading Scheme

A Google engineer has been charged by United States authorities for allegedly using confidential company data to earn profits exceeding ₹11 crore through trades on the prediction market platform Polymarket. The case has intensified global concerns over insider trading risks in online prediction markets and the misuse of corporate information.

The accused, identified as Michele Spagnuolo, a 36-year-old Italian national residing in Switzerland, is alleged to have used non-public Google data to place bets under the pseudonym “AlphaRaccoon.”

Allegations of Insider Access and Suspicious Trading Activity

According to US prosecutors, Spagnuolo worked at Google and had access to internal systems that contained sensitive, non-public information. Authorities claim he used an internal software tool that clearly labeled data as “Google Confidential” while conducting his work.

Investigators allege that between October 15, 2025, and December 4, 2025, he placed approximately $2.75 million in bets linked to Google-related outcomes on Polymarket. The account in question was created in May 2024.

The complaint further states that he violated company policies after certifying his understanding of Google’s confidentiality and ethics rules while still allegedly using privileged information for personal financial gain.

Prediction Market Bets Linked to Google Search Outcomes

Prosecutors say the trades were focused on prediction contracts tied to Google’s internal and public search data trends. These included speculative bets on which individuals or topics would dominate Google’s annual search rankings.

Among the outcomes cited in the complaint were bets related to whether singer D4vd would be the most searched person of 2025, as well as predictions involving public figures such as Zohran Mamdani and entertainment titles like Squid Game.

Authorities allege that several of these predictions later proved accurate following Google’s official “Year in Search 2025” release in early December, after which the trading account reportedly generated significant profits.

Arrest, Charges, and Legal Proceedings

Spagnuolo was arrested in New York and presented before a federal court, where he did not enter a plea. He was released on a $2.25 million bond pending further proceedings.

He faces multiple charges, including violations of the Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud, and money laundering. If convicted on all counts, he could face a maximum sentence of up to 50 years in prison. A parallel civil case has also been filed by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), alleging illegal trading practices.

Google and Polymarket Respond to Allegations

Google has stated that the employee had access to internal tools available to staff but emphasized that the alleged misuse of confidential data constitutes a serious breach of company policy. The company confirmed that the individual has been placed on leave and that appropriate disciplinary action will follow.

Polymarket has also responded, stating that it is committed to maintaining fair and transparent trading environments and is cooperating with regulators and law enforcement agencies in the investigation.

Growing Scrutiny Over Prediction Markets

The case adds to growing scrutiny of prediction platforms like Polymarket, where users can place financial bets on real-world events. Regulators and policymakers have increasingly warned that such platforms may be vulnerable to insider exploitation if participants gain access to non-public information.

Authorities in the United States have previously cautioned employees in sensitive positions against using confidential data for trading or betting activities, citing risks of market manipulation and ethical violations.